Population Forecast

5 year Forecast - 7.5%

The current population of the Stockton-Modesto, CA Market is 1,488,816 as of the July 2024 PopStats estimate. PopStat’s Trend models indicate a 5 year population change of 7.5%, resulting in a Population of 1,599,830 by July 2029. This percentage change in Population ranks 6th across STI Markets. The Stockton-Modesto, CA Market currently ranks 68th in overall population, and will rank 67th by July 2029.

Market Comparison Map - 5 Year Change

5 year Forecast Market Map

Figure 71: 5 year Forecast Market Map

5 Year forecast by Census Tract

5 Year Percentage Change Thematic

Figure 72: 5 Year Percentage Change Thematic

High and Low Range - -0.1% to 13.1%

While the summation of mid range 5 year forecasts foresee a change in Population of 7.5% for Stockton-Modesto, CA Market. The forecast high ranges of these forecasts leaves open the possibility for a Population change as high as 13.1% at 1,683,357. Similarly a population change as low as -0.1% at 1,487,432 is not without possibility.

Population Trend and Forecast

Figure 73: Population Trend and Forecast

Historical Trend and Forecast

Population Long Trend and Forecast

Figure 74: Population Long Trend and Forecast

10 year Projections - 16.4%

By July 2034 we project the Population of the Stockton-Modesto, CA Market to be 1,732,695 resulting in a change of 16.4% compared to the current Population. This projected percentage change in Population ranks 7th across STI Markets. The Stockton-Modesto, CA Market currently ranks 68th in overall population, and will rank 61st by July 2034.

10 year Projections by Census Tract

10 Year Percentage Change Thematic

Figure 75: 10 Year Percentage Change Thematic