Category: News

February 16th, 2023 Update

Since our last update in July 2022, there have been no further updates from the Census Bureau regarding the release of the DHC file. However, we are excited to announce that we are moving up the release of our first 2020 Census baseline estimate from October to July, as we now feel confident in a quick turnaround, dependent on a May 2023 release of the DHC file. As a portion of our customer base has started to use 2020 geographies we have provided our customers with crosswalk tables to help with the translation. To make this transition smoother for our users, a 2010 Census based version translated to 2020 geographies will be available with the April release.

Here’s what to expect from our upcoming releases:

• The April 2023 release will be the first version with a 2020 geography option. Both 2010 and 2020 geography versions will be available. The estimates themselves will continue to be based on a 2010 Census baseline.

• The July 2023 release, which will follow the Census Bureau’s expected release of the 2020 DHC file in May, will be the first version based on the new 2020 baseline. We will also provide a 2010 geography translation version for this release.

• The October release will be the first version available only on 2020 geographies.

What makes Synergos unique, and the reason why we’re the preferred data provider to the majority of industries where site location is mission critical, is that we’re the best at balancing between speed and thoroughness. We appreciate your trust and look forward to navigating these changes with you.

---

The following Q&A section will hopefully address most of your remaining questions, but please don’t hesitate to reach us through our Contact Us form, or through your primary contact at Synergos for additional information.

 What data specifically is missing, and what data from the 2020 Census has been used in the most recent STI:PopStats estimates?

The low level geography counts that have not yet been released, and which are critical to us for performing a full rebuild are; households, persons per household, vacancies,  age distributions, and race distributions by age.

Has the ACS release in March 2022 been used to produce the current estimates?

In short, yes. The ACS, which is normally delivered in December, was delayed for the first time ever to the end of March of 2022, which means our Q3 July 2022 release, will be the first to leverage this data. Additionally, this ACS data was published on 2020 Geographies and had to be translated to 2010 geographies for incorporation into our products.

Should we be concerned with the results reported by the Post Enumeration Survey (PES)?

The Census Bureau reported that their PES showed an undercount in six states, and an over count in eight states. Given that the PES is based on a 114,000 household survey and on a theoretical model that the Census doesn’t disclose, we ultimately trust the data reported in the Census as the ultimate truth to rebuild our models. For more on the PES click here.

How does this situation compare to the 2010 Census release? 

The SF1 file for the 2010 Census had several versions. The first version was a state-by-state release that occurred between June and August 2011. This allowed us to have our conversion to the 2010 geographies completed by the October 2011 release. If the Census Bureau releases the DHC data around May 2023 that will be about two years behind how the 2010 Census release went.

Why the delay with the 2020 Census Release?

Previous delays could be partially attributed to the Covid-19 pandemic. The current delay centers primarily on the Bureau’s effort to devise a mechanism for keeping personally identifiable information confidential. This is referred to as Differential Privacy, and this evolving methodology will continue to delay an already late release until the Bureau deems it is satisfactorily accomplishing its purpose.  Hopefully this time, the Census Bureau’s publication date of May 2023 holds and does truly provide the necessary time for them to complete this task. 

 

Curious about PopStats? Reach out and we’d be glad to help!

 Contact Us

 

October 19, 2021 Update

As the Census Bureau continues to work through its releases, we wanted to update you on their status and how their past and future releases are incorporated into our products. We put together this Q&A to address most of your questions regarding the process and our updated schedule for fully incorporating the 2020 Census and releasing estimates with 2020 geographies. Please read carefully and don’t hesitate to reach out should you need clarification or further discussion on any point.

What Census 2020 data has been released?

• The first 2020 Census data released by the Census Bureau in late April 2021 included only Population counts on a State level of geography. Then in August 2021 they released the redistricting data, also known as the P.L. 94 data. This data was released in other formats in mid-September. The P.L. 94 data includes fields for Population, Race, Ethnicity, Housing units, and Voting Age at a Census Block level of geography. 

How has that data been incorporated into PopStats?

• The first incorporation was with our July 2021 release. We used the Census 2020 state-level figures to adjust our county-level control population totals. With the latest October 2021 release, we have used the P.L. 94 data to adjust the county-level control population totals. This integration method has kept our models based on 2010 geographies but still allows for some adjustment based upon the 2020 Census data. Most areas saw only slight changes. Areas that saw more effect were areas like New Jersey, which we undercounted compared to the 2020 Census, and Arizona, which we overcounted. 

What data are we waiting on for a full rebuild based upon 2020 geographies and lower-level data?

• The Demographic and Housing Characteristics File (DHC) includes data that in 2010 was previously included in the SF1 file. This data includes several key breakouts that are necessary for rebuilding our estimate models based on the new 2020 geographies. These include households, age, sex, race, and their cross tables, among others. The household count and other detailed breakout fields are imperative to rebuild the estimate model. It should be noted that the P.L. 94 data does not contain a household count and many other critical breakouts. 

What is the current estimated timeline for a complete 2020 based version? 

• The Census Bureau does not have a precise date set for the release of the DHC and Detailed DHC and never has given one. Previously the rumors, among mostly state demographers with which the Census coordinates, indicated state-by-state releases from late August 2021 through December 2021. Based upon this we have currently and tentatively set our 2020 update schedule for the April and July releases in 2022. However, none of those files have been released to date. Currently, they list “Tentatively 2022” on the main Census 2020 web page. And in the Stakeholder Engagement plans just released in September there is slightly more detail for the DHC timeline. This source indicates that the DHC will “Begin Production”, after two rounds of format and privacy review and public comment that are to occur in Winter and Spring. This timeline indicates they will start producing the DHC files in Summer 2022. If that is the case, and we really hope it isn’t, we will make every attempt to meet an October 2022 release. 

How does this compare to the 2010 Census release? 

• The SF1 file for the 2010 Census had several versions. The first version was a state-by-state release that occurred between June and August 2011. This allowed us to have our conversion to the 2010 geographies completed by the October 2011 release. If the Census Bureau releases the DHC data around June that will be about a year behind how the 2010 Census release went.

Why the delay?

• The Census Bureau had a major early issue with conducting the 2020 Census, the Covid-19 pandemic. The ultimate effects of this were a delay of only a few months. An impressive testament to the Census Bureau’s ability to adapt. This is why we, along with other industry demographers, expected state-by-state releases between August and December 2021. Just a slightly lagged version of the 2010 SF1 file release schedule. That was until last month’s Stakeholder Engagement plans indicated that this data would not be released until it could be revised for differential privacy noise injection, which is the bureau’s new additional mechanism for keeping personally identifiable information confidential. This will end up further delaying an already late release. 

We were the first demographic data company to release a 2010 Census based estimate, and we’re committed to leading the pack in releasing accurate estimates with the 2020 Census. We appreciate that you chose Synergos products because of our uncompromising commitment to quality and the timeliness of our releases, and we are eager to continue to prove our value as we work towards a 2020 Census based estimate.

If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to give us a call at (512) 343-1963 or simply chat with us right here.

Curious about PopStats? Reach out and we’d be glad to help!

Learn More Census Bureau Website