STI: PopStats 2019 Research Conference Report
This Report contains highlights from the 2019 STI: PopStats Research Conference — held April 8th to 10th in downtown Fort Worth, Texas. Read synopses of the event's 14 Synergos Technologies’ research-packed sessions delivered by PopStats users, partners, and team members.The 14th annual STI: PopStats Conference was an event that marked a number of firsts. It was the first PopStats conference where Synergos Technologies partnered with other firms to host the event. It was also the first conference that offered attendees education tracks (three of them) instead of one single track. And it was the first PopStats conference held outside of Austin, Texas. No one has ever said that Synergos Technologies is not innovative! This year STI co-hosted the event with partners Tetrad (Sitewise) and Trade Area Systems (TAS). On the second day of the two-and-a-half day event, attendees had three options — with sessions offered by each partner in different rooms of the Omni International hotel in Fort Worth, Texas. It turns out that the innovative change of tradition and destination was an innovative decision — as evidence by sheer attendance numbers. This year’s conference had the highest attendance of any event so far — over 140. Here is just some of the feedback attendees shared on the overall conference and on each individual session (comments included in the session highlights below).
Notable Stats
What was the most beneficial aspect of the conference?
What was the single best idea you gained that will help you in your job?
What was the single most important factor/issue that influenced your decision to attend this conference?
What new topics did you hear about this week that you plan to investigate further?
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Monday April 8, 2019
Tuesday April 9, 2019
Wednesday April 10, 2019
Day 1 - Monday, April 8, 2019
Session 1 - Introduction and Updates to PopStats DataRobert Welch | President, Synergos Technologies As always, Synergos Technologies continues to add new data to PopStats. Robert kicked off the conference by introducing several new innovative datasets: Released July 2018:.
Released April 2019:
Released July 2019:
SESSION 2 - Measuring Change in Neighborhoods — Using GIS and Demographics to Quantify Rejuvenation
David Spawn | Director of Research Marketing | Brixmor What impact does gentrification have on selecting an ideal location? Is it possible to actually see what’s happening in a region and build a tool to track it? In 2018, Brixmor and Trade Area Systems aimed to find out, creating the Brixmor's Neighborhood Rejuvenation Index, a custom tool that Brixmor uses to market its properties in up-and-coming neighborhoods. David from Bixmor and Hartwell from Trade Area Systems shared how they created the innovation framework. “We needed a process that was replicable across the U.S. and able to be benchmarked,” said David. “Everything we could find on measuring gentrification was too academically heavy. Plus, good street views were not helpful, and existing data analytics tools were clunky and not easy to use.” Here are some of their discoveries regarding measuring gentrification: Attendee Feedback:
Session Feedback From Attendees:
SESSION 3 - How Will Opportunity Zones Change CRE Investment?Lacy Beasley | President | Retail Strategies Many communities want retail development, but they lack the skills to know how to attract, engage, and makes deals with retailers. What’s more, other communities don’t look for retail opportunities, because they don’t understand how the addition of retail will impact their communities in other ways, such as incentivizing industry to locate in their areas. Enter Retail Strategies. As experts in community and commercial real estate partnering, the company helps communities across the country bridge every knowledge gaps in the process. As Lacy Beasley said, “We play matchmaker between municipalities and commerce. We exist to help communities bring retail, who want it and need it, but didn’t know how to do it.” The result has included a wide range of results — from helping communities overcome lost manufacturing opportunities to attracting previously out-of-reach retailers. For example:
She also talked about Opportunity Zones, and how to benefit with the new tax reform bill that supports commercial investment in low-income and high unemployment “zones.” “We’ve heard that this program has the potential to be the largest economic development program in U.S. history. Why is that?” Lacy overviewed the new retail incentive program, which impacts 12 percent of the census tracks across the country that are largely rural and where annual incomes on average are $10k. Attendee Feedback:
SESSION 4 - Leveraging Predictive Analytics and Market Optimization to Develop a Strategic Real Estate Plan for SalonCentric
Charleslie Russell | VP Store Development | L’Oreal Charleslie overviewed SalonCentric’s approach to targeting locations for its stores in light of the fact that brick and mortar is one-third of its sales, along with consultants in the field working with big salons and ecommerce. “Our ecommerce and street channels do better when supported by local stores, because many customers want to visit stores to touch, see, and smell the products,” she said. SalonCentric worked with Tetrad to ensure that it was making the optimal store location decisions for each location, including a strategy for opening more stores for clients. “We wanted a predictive analytic forecasting tool and mapping platform to develop a proactive market optimization strategy to aid in location decision making,” said Charleslie. “It needed to be able to assess locations, identify voids in target markets, estimate maximum sales potential and capital spend — all so we could make more informed decisions quickly and on the fly, in seconds versus weeks.” Michael overviewed the four steps taken to develop the model to assess the targeted sites:
Charleslie and Michael concluded the presentation by overviewing four case study examples of how the forecasting process worked in the field including:
Attendee Feedback:
SESSION 5 - Finding the Right Retail Mix for Your Community
Jason Claunch | President | Catalyst Commercial Catalyst and Teknion partnered to create an innovative approach to real estate research for municipalities using Alteryx and PopStats. “This started when we asked ourselves why we cannot adopt the traditional market research model used by retailers to identify locations and reverse engineer it to help municipalities attract retailers,” said Jason. “In other words, why can’t we use scientific approach to figure this out on a national level?” Jason and Deanna overviewed the six-step workflow “proof of concept” of the innovative approach to municipality-based real estate analysis they created, called the Catalyst Model:
Jason and Deanna concluded their presentation with case study examples, including Downtown Roanoke Oak Tree in Virginia. Thanks to implementation of the program, results included:
Attendee Feedback:
SESSION 6 - Creating and Prioritizing Trade Zones in the U.S. MarketplaceKiril Traykov | Sr. Manager, Strategy & Analytics | Levi Strauss & Co. Even though the USA is a vast country, when it comes to apparel consumption is heavily concentrated in urban areas. Levi Strauss & Co, for example, found that consumers living in just 10 percent of the land (50 urban trade zones) buy 68 percent of the country’s pants and shorts. This figure makes a great proxy for total apparel sales. To capture and optimize this spend, Levi create a Key Cities Strategy in an effort to answer hard questions and better align its consumer profiles in each area with its sales. Kiril overviewed his process at the PopStats conference. The company used Sitewise and PopStats counts, density, and proximity to help delineate the boundaries of its algorithmically derived Trade Zones, then identify the populations living there. By mapping its entire network of stores, wholesale points of sale, competitors, and shopping centers, Levi transformed its business, including being able to make better-informed real estate decisions. “Our consumers shop across multiple channels and we have to figure out their preferred ecosystem,” said Kiril. “In other words, which channels are more effective to moving the needle? For example, how well are 501s selling in Dallas?” This helps the legendary company, in particular, stay on top of shifts in activity and optimize its customers’ omni-channel purchasing experience, which includes receiving emails, searching its website, searching for sales, and visiting stores to try on products — all of which is common with most fashion consumers today. Its ultimate goal is to discover which channels make more sense for each product in each market. Interestingly, in general, the findings point to the need for more, not less, brick-and-mortar stores. Attendee Feedback:
Day 2 - Tuesday, April 9, 2019
SESSION 1 - Top Growth Markets for 2018Robert Welch | President | Synergos Technologies Robert reported in this always-popular session that Top Growth Market Areas’ growth levels were so exceptional they overshadowed last year’s growth. This annual presentation highlights those market areas that have shown strong growth in the past two years. This is always a favorite session—particularly since the research also shows top market growth since he started the research 13 years ago, because companies can make year-to-year comparisons. Robert related this annual review to the previous Top Growth Market presentations and compared and contrasted those markets. Robert uses the same methodology each year to create the report. The proprietary methodology uses STI: PopStats data and he evaluates U.S. markets based on the following criteria:
In 2019, 34 Top Growth Market Areas had all three criteria—compared to 39 in 2018. The top 10 areas are:
(Note: the names used are for reference only, the actual growth may be occuring just outside the areas mentioned) Attendee Feedback:
SESSION 2 - Demographic Clarity for BusinessChris Porter | Chief Demographer | John Burns RE John Burns Real Estate is in the business to help residential construction industry make smarter investments with greater confidence, minimize risk, and maximize results. They track and analyze multiple data points in about 70 markets to find what’s working and what’s not. The company’s research includes:
One challenge in researching the building industry is confusion around demographics among builders. For example, the general belief is that millennials want to move to cities and live in suburbs. However, this idea raises questions on definitions: What’s a millennial? What a Gen X? What’s a suburb? What’s a city? There’s such vast disagreement in definitions that the company created its own definitions of generations based on decades, including nicknames based on major cultural shifts that occurred in each.
Another unique term the company coined is “Surban.” These are communities that are a combination of suburban and urban. The growth of this sector is driven by people who want the safety and housing prices of suburbs, but still want walk-ability, public transportation, and access to urban-type events. Two groups in particular are attracted to these areas: sharers and empty nesters. They want to be active and don’t need a lot of space, and want to be a part of a “downtown scene.” Attendee Feedback:
SESSION 3 - State of the U.S. Mall Industry — 2019Clay Hallman | Director of Real Estate Research | Simon Properties Clay Hallman talked about what’s going on in the mall industry these days from a realistic lens that countered the negative headlines about the demise of malls. Simon Properties is the largest mall owner in the world with over 200 in the U.S., one of largest in Europe, and building outlet centers in Asia. With malls of all sizes and types, the company is always poised to ride out changes in the industry. For example, premium outlets helped the company remain successful during the Great Recession. These days, there is much speculation and conjecture around the current state and future prospects of the U.S. mall industry. However, “malls don’t die easily,” noted Clay. While it’s true that the industry is going through a time of transition, the story is not as bleak as the rhetoric often portrays. Despite the negative headlines, Simon Properties is still building new malls, such as one in Miami. Square foot sales continue to go up. Rents are up. Occupancy is still at 90 percent. Releasing spread is about $7. Rather than just randomly dying, the reality includes a variety of variables:
“The retail landscape always changing — there’s a cycle,” added Clay. “Something new will open when others go away – the key is having good real estate and being a good operator.” To stay relevant, mall owners are executing strategies that fall into three main trends:
SESSION 4 - Can Healthcare Be Convenient? Using Location Strategy, Hospitality and DesignGabe Harris | Sr. Real Estate Manager | One Medical “Medical is not traditionally a warm, welcoming, and comfortable experience today,” said Gabe. “They are known for long wait times and impersonal service.” One Medical organization is turning this outdated model around and creating a positive association for people visiting a doctor. The company delivers a unique medical membership model that focuses on lifetime treatment of patients, including smaller patient rosters and more personal doctor visits. As a result, One Medical is growing rapidly with 70 units in nine markets currently — including multiple practices in the same areas. The company will rollout 25 more units in 2019 and 40 units in 2020. To guide the selection of new doctors’ offices, the company uses very targeted site selection data including:
SESSION 5 - Thinking Outside the Circle: Drive-Time AnalyticsSusan Beaumaster | MSAT Market Analyst II | Life Time Fitness Life Time Fitness is a champion of living healthy and happy life with 143 athletic lifestyle resort destinations in 39 major markets in the U.S. and Canada. At the conference, the company’s analytics team overviewed how they are moving beyond ring studies to include drive-time analytics in their market research. They have honed this method to a well-oiled machine — and, as a result, yielded valuable insight for understanding its customers and their surrounding neighborhoods. The Life Time team shared just some of the insights they’ve learned from drive-time analytics including:
SESSION 6 - Market Planning Challenges in Healthcare IndustryDave Huntoon | Principle | Intalytics Healthcare providers have been evolving toward a more consumer-focused operating strategy, increasingly employing techniques long familiar to the retail industry to grow brand awareness and sales. However, there remain fundamental differences concerning the relationship between consumers and retailers relative to the relationship between patients and healthcare providers. In his session, Dave Huntoon addressed some of the unique challenges faced by healthcare companies — including everything from drugstores to dentists to urgent cares — in their efforts to develop successful deployment strategies. Market planning challenges for healthcare providers include: payment source trends in the area, regional regulatory oversight, types of patient/provider relationships, visit frequency, type of trade area, sales and profit potential of local patients, and patient profiles. For example, many healthcare providers will cherry-pick their deployment plans based on reimbursement rates including:
Patient profiling for healthcare providers is similar to that for retail and restaurant operations including:
Day 3 - Wednesday, April 10, 2019
SESSION 1 - STI Product Family in ActionRobert Welch | President | Synergos Technologies Every year, Robert overviews some of PopStats' most unique datasets, including the following at this year's conference:
Because he had extra time, Robert also provided insight on three U.S. markets using some of these datasets and others in the PopStats - demonstrating how they can be used to make insightful market comparisons. Attendee Feedback:
SESSION 2 - STI: PopStats Data MethodologyRobert Welch | President | Synergos Technologies Robert rounded about the two-and-a-half day Conference with explanations of the PopStats' methodology. He said that the PopStats estimates are calculated on multiple computers working together in a pseudo-parallel processing manner. "We have created a self-correcting artificial intelligence modeling system that learns from itself." Here is a brief description of the methodology. Four models comprise the methodology:
The PopStats methodology includes automated processes for overcoming any and all anomalies present in the data, including ZIP+4 inaccuracies, data smoothing issues, conversions (lofts), and overrides. If a client has a question about PopStats' estimates, Robert or a member of his team will research the issue. The client should first gather as much detail as possible, include any third-party evidence that supports his or her position, and be patient during the evaluation process. The issue will be verified, and the underlying data and soft sources will be checked. Finally, STI will report back to the client in a timely manner. Attendee Feedback:
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